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Внешние долги стран растут

Кроме проблем связанных с замедлением роста мировой экономики, отсутствия роста инфляции в ряде развитых стран, Международный Валютный Фонд сигнализирует о новой проблеме, которая может вызвать новый и еще более пагубный мировой кризис.
Согласно последнему мониторингу МВФ общий долг стран, участвующих в исследовании, составляет 225% от их общего ВВП, и продолжает увеличиваться.
В Международном Валютном Фонде обеспокоены такой ситуацией, и рекомендуют правительствам стран предпринять меры, которые помогут центральным банкам избежать нового кризиса. То есть правительствам стран необходимо прибегнуть к фискальному стимулированию, поскольку регуляторы не способны решить проблему самостоятельно.
После последнего финансового кризиса 2008 года ЦБ прибегнули к смягчению денежно-кредитных политик. Процентные ставки были снижены, запущенны программы количественного смягчения, центральные банки стимулировали экономики, как могли.
Эти методы помогли после кризиса. Мировая экономика начала восстанавливаться, но радость не длилась вечно. Сейчас некоторые центральные банки дошли до ультрамягкой денежно-кредитной политики, процентные ставки ушли в отрицательную зону, а экономика стран все равно не может восстановиться после кризиса, так как инфляция не растет. Становится все очевиднее, что нынешние меры стимулирования становятся все бесполезнее и в будущем могут принести больше вреда, чем пользы.
Общий рост мировой экономики сохранялся за счет развития экономики Китая, но с ростом и этой экономики возникла проблема дальнейшего развития.
Обращая внимание на событие, которое произошли почти 100 лет назад, просматриваются определенные сходства.
Первое, что бросается в глаза состояние перепроизводства. Китай, который стал производственной базой для всего мира, столкнулся с тем, что практически все рынки и все ниши заполнены. Именно поэтому Поднебесная пытается перестроить свою экономику, ориентируясь на внутреннее потребление.
Второе это очередное образование мыльного пузыря на фондовых рынках. Последний мировой кризис был вызван образованием пузыря на рынке недвижимости. Цены на недвижимость искусственно росли, опережая реальный рост уровня жизни. При этом фондовые индексы хотя и упали, но после поддержки со стороны государства фондовые рынки в последние годы вновь бьют исторические рекорды. Дешевые деньги привели к очередному вливанию капитала в фондовый рынок, но не в реальный сектор экономики.
В прошлый раз маржинальные займы использовали в основном частные инвесторы или мелкие финансовые институты. Сегодня на мировых рынках принимают участие в торговле, даже крупные банки, используя кредитное плечо. Это в определенной мере помогает в торговле, но если движение актива идет против Вас, результаты могут быть очень пагубными.
Можно проводить много аналогий по истории, но и уже перечисленных факторов достаточно, чтобы понять. Нынешняя политика центральных банков это путь в никуда. Все лозунги и заверения о светлом будущем наталкиваются на жестокую реальность.
США, якобы победившие прошлую рецессию, увеличили свой внешний долг более чем в два раза, и вопрос обстоит только об обслуживании долга, ни о каком погашении речи не идет. Инфляция в Еврозоне остается на нулевых значениях, несмотря на все меры принятые ЕЦБ. В Японии похожая ситуация. А согласно экономической теории о цикличности, в скором времени стоит ожидать очередного если не кризиса, то замедления роста мировой экономики, которое на лицо. И при этом экономика многих стран так и не восстановилась после прошлого кризиса 2008 года.
Самое страшное в этом, что даже, когда в 2008 году проблема была многим очевидна, светила экономики, занимающие государственные посты продолжали заявлять, что рынок недвижимости нерушим и все восстановится. И как и во все прошлые разы, в очередной раз придется рассчитываться за чужие ошибки совсем другим людям. Но в этот раз кризис может стать последним для нынешней модели экономики. Ранее пузыри надувались в том или ином секторе экономики, но сектор этот был реальным.
Но сейчас самый большой пузырь надут на фондовом рынке, который по факту к реальной экономике имеет отношение довольно посредственное. Центральные банки при этом своими мерами стимулирования на самом деле напитывали именно этот рынок, а не экономику стран.
Именно поэтому долги перед МВФ только растут, и если не запустить кардинально новое решение, которое должно изменить всю нынешнюю систему мировой экономики самостоятельно, новая, но теперь уже в условиях глобализации, «Великая депрессия» станет достоянием всей планеты Земля.

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